Copyright 2011-3011 By Chase Kyla Hunter, All Rights Reserved.
- N.Y. Sen. Schumer wants ‘New York’ first in name of merged U.S.-German stock exchange parent (latimesblogs.latimes.com)
- Schumer: In Exchange Merger, N.Y.S.E. Must Come First (dealbook.nytimes.com)
- Deals of the Day: Is Twitter Worth $10 Billion? Google, Facebook Think So (blogs.wsj.com)
- German Exchange, NYSE, In ‘Advanced’ Merger Talks (npr.org)
- Mayor says NY-German stock exchange good for NYC (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- London Stock Exchange merger is far from a done deal (telegraph.co.uk)
- HK exchange open to alliances, adds voice to merger frenzy (lookatvietnam.com)
- UPDATE 3-US lawmaker told NYSE to lead merged exchange (reuters.com)
- Stock Exchange Merger Frenzy! Toronto, London, Now NYSE (blogs.wsj.com)
- Exchange chiefs seek global powerhouses (cnn.com)
The web-bot project, which was originally developed in the late 1990s to forecast stock profits and picks, gained some notoriety after correctly identifying the global chatter which led to the “day of infamy” on 9.11.2001. Since that time, however, the web-bot’s accuracy in predicting times, dates, and windows for events has been spotty at best. It appears that the technology serves superbly to identify the trend[s] themselves, but performs poorly when attempting to assign a window in time, or a specific date to the trend or event which has been identified.
All well and good: What has the web-bot project sniffed out for late 2010 and early 2011 that we didn’t already intuit just by scanning the day’s headlines for several months in a row? The list compiled below presents an assortment of possible “tipping point” event indicators culled from the 2010 web-bot project. I’ll be frank here. This list is not different from some of the trends, forecasts and approximate indicators that I have already given months earlier in my own research on my blogs.
But the young techno-cats being what they are, they would much rather hear these predictions from a mysteriously geeky and high tech”www spider based search and discover tool”, than to hear the very same predictions from the local neighborhood clairvoyant Cherokee shaman on WordPress.com.
So be it. I’m not bothered by mainstream America‘s refusal to take note of the proverbial handwriting on the wall any more than the biblical Daniel might have been bothered by it several thousand years back. My spiritual calling is to post what Spirit leads me to write. I’m not attached to what happens to it beyond that point. From the point of “posting” it is then in God’s hands, like Providence, and due to the mysteries of the internet, one assumes that the right people find my writing at the right time, so that they are then prompted from within to do the right thing[s] before it is too late. It’s all in God’s hands at this point. Amen.
Here’s what the 2010 web-bot sees coming, corroborated in full by the local online Cherokee shaman and global trend forecaster:
=> The bulging, macabre and outrageously criminal financial derivatives bubble based on Wall Street will burst soon: JP Morgan is at the top of the list, presently holding paper on more than 86 trillion dollars in derivatives (that’s trillions, not billions) – when this takes place, there will be nothing that I can see which will prevent an 80 foot tall roaring global financial tsunami from sweeping from he US, to Europe, through the Mideast and onto Asia. Get down on your knees grown men, and pray.
=> Based on the above event, hyper-inflation (not deflation) may commence at some point in late 2011, and the value of the dollar may plummet even further, while simultaneously prices for food, energy and housing will rise exponentially.
=> Based on the above, gold, silver and precious metals price will continue to skyrocket vertically (in between breath-taking periodic corrections when profit taking scrapes the cream off the top) like they did in the late 1970s, early 1980s. The FED may possibly choose to clamp down suddenly on free market metals prices, trying to intervene to stop a national run on the banks, as consumers frantically try to withdraw ever more worthless dollars and rush into metals investing to save their life savings. All hell breaks loose when the FED tries to keep this run on banks from taking place, and the scenes from 2008 of long lines of people standing outside failing banks trying to withdraw their money which we all saw 2 years ago may possibly repeat again with more ferocity: lather, rinse, repeat.
=> Watch the disintegrating situation in Europe as the fledgling EU tries to prop up Ireland, Portugal and Spain all at once, putting a serious strain on it’s own coffers. If the trembling EU house of cards flutters down, then civil unrest in Europe could become more frequent, further disrupting the environment for business and trade. In the UK the banking system is not much better.
Other 2011 Predictions I’ve located:
•No warfare between Israel and Iran, at least not until November 2010.
•Six very large earthquakes are yet to come during the rest of 2010.
•A major tipping point will occur between November 8 – 11, 2010, followed by a 2-3 month release period. This tipping point appears to be US-centric, and could be a dramatic world-changing event like 9-11 that will have rippling after-effects. The collapse of the dollar might occur in November.
•From July 11, 2010 onward, civil unrest will take place, possibly driven by food prices skyrocketing, and the devaluation of the dollar. No such incident has occurred following that date.
•No exact information on the December 14th missile launch (beginning of World War III) has been confirmed, but the predictions show it may happen.
•A second depression, triggered by mass layoffs, bankruptcies, and the popping of the “derivatives bubble,” will see people moving out of cities.
•After March 2011, the revolution wave will settle down into a period of reformation.
•A “data gap” has been found between early 2012 running through May 2013. One explanation is that “our civilization gets knocked back to a pre-electronic state,” such as brought about by devastating solar activity.
•A new benign form of capitalism will emerge during 2017-2020.[2
If you would like to know just how far “off” web bot predictions can really be, have a look at the web article on the front page of the site http://playbull.com and ponder.
We’re now 13 days into 2011 and I don’t believe that anyone could have predicted the outrageous and shocking shooting massacre in Arizona that has ripped the nation into two warring factions, neither of which are making much sense. I speculate: Was this early 2011 Arizona massacre the referred to emotional, political and psychological “tipping point” for the respressed outrage and frustration felt by many millions of Americans? 2011 prognosticators have been alluding to some event they considered would be a tipping point moment in late 2010 – early 2011. Was this event that tipping point?
I am still seeking more verifiable credible web bot predictions for 2011 that feel plausible. Holding a spiritual finger to the wind always works for me as well.
Chase Kyla Hunter
Related links and video:
2011 Web Bot Predictions on video:
There is a perfect storm brewing in US financial markets. Whether or not it can be avoided in time to avert another disaster on the scale of last year’s Wall Street meltdown depends on a variety of factors. Follow the lead of North Dakota:
Posted Sep 11, 2009 09:17am EDT
Courtesy of The Business Insider, Sept. 14, 2009:
One year after America’s brush with economic catastrophe, there’s plenty of looking back at the bubbles that caused financial chaos.
But what’s next?
There are surely dangerous economic bubbles forming as we speak. As Alan Greenspan warned this week, “They [financial crises] are all different, but they have one fundamental source,” he said. “That is the unquenchable capability of human beings when confronted with long periods of prosperity to presume that it will continue.”
The trick, of course, is spotting them. By definition, most people don’t spot a bubble before they form and burst.
Here’s 10 for which you should be on alert:
1. China bubble: Despite the weak global economy, the Chinese stock market has soared like crazy this year. But many believe the rally has been driven purely by government-supplied liquidity, rather than fundamentals. The fear is that companies are flush with cash, but have little “real” to do with the cash, so they’re parking it in the stock market casino. The Chinese real estate market appears to be on a similar trajectory.
2. Green bubble: Green has been everywhere. With observers saying the “Age of Cleantech and Biotech” will be the next major economic revolution, and Washington pouring billions of dollars into alternative energy projects, you’d think a bubble would have already formed. But, as we noted this spring, it did not, at least from an investment perspective.
Still, as the economic recovery takes shape, alternative energy could see excess investment on hopes of big future returns. There’s plenty of hype left, and if investors regain the cash to get in the game, could green become the next internet or housing bubble?
3. Gold bubble: Gold prices just keep going up. They’ve risen for seven straight years, recently breaking $1,000 per ounce.
Is it a bubble? Right now, it doesn’t look too bad. Gold is good in both inflationary and deflationary periods, as it holds wealth tangibly. And, as the Telegraph notes, there’s real demand, especially from China.
But with some predicting a doubling of prices to $2,000 an ounce, too many people could jump in and spike the real value of the precious metal. The “rise forever” mentality usually means trouble.
At first glance, the Fed’s effort to clean up mortgage-backed securities is a winner. But, as Heidi Moore wrote for Slate’s The Big Money, the Fed is actually creating a bubble similar to the one it’s trying to do damage control on. By eagerly trying to save banks and stabilize the housing market, Washington is taking on too much: $1.25 trillion of mortgaged-backed securities, including both the original toxic assets and products of foreclosures to come. So who would bail the Fed out? You.
Click here to view the 10 bubbles in the make slide show.
5. Trash stock bubble: There’s a rush to trash going on. Stocks like Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), AIG (AIG) and even GM made big runs in August — trading in trash financials made up nearly one-third of NYSE’s August volume.
So why are people buying junk? Charlie Gasparino says shares of junk financials — companies like Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Citi and Bank of America — are being pushed up by a short squeeze. The Wall Street Journal suspects its high frequency traders. And others say its retail speculation and day traders getting their way while Wall Street went on vacation.
6. Education bubble: More people are going back to college and taking on huge debt to do it, despite questions about what the degree is really worth.
Last year, the amount borrowed by students and received by schools grew some 25% over the previous year, to $75.1 billion. That’s a huge amount, especially with weak, low-paying job prospects for graduates in this economy.
As we’ve noted, all this student loan debt is crazy. Despite the desire to see more subsidization of college, we suspect there will be a collapse in student loan debt availability and desire to take on new debt.
Short of telling kids not to go to college, something’s going to give.
The pop may be starting already. As Bloomberg reports, as many as one-third of all private colleges surveyed said they expected enrollment to drop in the next academic year. And almost 40 percent of those colleges said some of their students dropped out due to personal economic reasons and a quarter said full-time attendees switched to part time. Half said families had to cut back their expected contributions as the value of college savings plans dropped 21 percent last year.
7. Subprime bubble, 2.0: What are banks doing with all those subprime mortgages? They’re repackaging with a higher rating — “re-securitization of real estate mortgage investment conduits” — and selling them.
As we’ve noted, it’s a plan nearly identical to the complicated investment packages of the financial crisis a year ago. That being said, the problem was not strictly securitization, but the underlying housing bubble. So the return of complicated products isn’t necessarily the end of the world.
8. Life insurance securitization bubble: In its search for new profits, Wall Street is planning on securitizing “life settlements” — policies that the sick and elderly can sell for cash while they’re alive — much like it did subprime mortgages. The New York Times warns that we could be looking at subprime all over again.
Maybe. As we’ve noted, it wasn’t securitization that caused the financial meltdown. It was the bursting of the housing bubble. Yes, there was a feedback loop, whereby securitization allowed more money to flow towards housing, but it seems unlikely that “life settlements” would get big enough to infect all portions of the financial world.
9. Commercial real estate bubble: This bubble is already hissing, if not popping outright.
While the economy is improving and some home sales are slowly coming back, the commercial real estate market could get far worse.
As The New York Times reports, “Even though industry lobbyists were able to persuade Congress to extend a loan program aimed at prodding the stalled securitization market back to life, several analysts said it was unlikely to head off a spate of defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies that could surpass the devastating real estate crash of the early 1990s.”
As UPI notes, commercial mortgage defaults could reach 4.1 percent by the end of the year, up from 2.25 percent in the first quarter, and Real Capital Analytics estimates commercial property loans worth $83 billion have been involved in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy in 2009.
Badly hit will likely be malls. “The next financial tsunami to hit will be the widespread failure of shopping center mortgages,” says Peter Monroe, co-chair of REOMAC, a not for profit trade association to CNBC. “Half a trillion dollars of commercial loans financed on historically low rates, are due for refinancing in the next three years,” says Monroe. “The negative impact of these shopping center mortgages is enormous.”
10. Emerging market bubble: It’s not just China. Risk-tolerant investors are bidding up emerging market shares to valuations not seen in 9 years. With an average PE of 20x, they’re not in bubble territory just yet, but watch for things to get out of hand.
More coverage from The Business Insider:
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- Bailout profit not adding up (thestar.com)
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